All Knockout Matches · Monte Carlo Predictions

Each simulation runs the full tournament — group stage through the Final — using Elo strength ratings to calculate win probabilities for every match. Ratings come from eloratings.net (January 2026 snapshot) and reflect each team's full match history. Host nations (USA, Mexico, Canada) receive a small home-advantage bonus. Stronger teams win more often, but upsets happen. After 50,000 runs, the percentages shown are how often each outcome actually occurred.

Shows each team's championship probability broken into three tiers: Top Favorites (>8%), Strong Contenders (3–8%), and Dark Horses (<3%). The bar length reflects relative likelihood. Use this as a quick power ranking — teams near the top of Dark Horses are your classic 'upset watch' picks.

Group Stage shows all 12 groups with projected qualifiers highlighted. The Round of 32 through Final tabs show each match slot's top 3 most likely matchups, their probability, and the expected win split. Gold/silver/bronze medals rank the matchups by frequency. Match quality labels (Elite Clash, Upset Alert, Even Contest…) are based on the relative ELO gap between the two teams — not just raw strength.

Pick any of the 48 qualified nations. You'll see their group, ELO rating, FIFA rank, form rating, and a round-by-round probability breakdown of how far they're likely to go. Each round shows which slot(s) they're likely to play in, the venue, and their most probable opponents — drawn only from actual simulated head-to-head pairings, so same-group teammates never appear as knockout opponents.

Search by city or stadium name to see every match scheduled at that venue across all rounds. Useful if you're planning to attend games at a specific location and want to know which teams are likely to play there.

Enter your home city and select a knockout round. The planner estimates total trip cost — flights, hotel, and ticket resale prices — for every match in that round. Sort by Best Match to surface high-quality games that won't break the bank (the ranking penalises astronomical ticket ceilings), or by Cheapest to find the most affordable options. Texas venues are flagged separately since flights from some cities are cheaper there. Prices are resale market estimates and will vary.

Ticket price ranges shown are secondary market (resale) estimates, not face value. The LOW figure is a realistic floor; the HIGH figure reflects premium seats and high-demand scenarios. Group stage matches are significantly cheaper than knockout rounds. Final tickets (M104, East Rutherford) carry the widest range — expect $5,888–$65,000+ depending on the finalists.

ELO is a rolling strength rating updated after every international match — higher means stronger. Form is a recent-results bonus/penalty layered on top. Both feed into the win probability formula for each simulated match. The FIFA Rankings tab at the end shows all 48 teams sorted by ELO with their form indicator.